CONFLICTING CONNECTIVITIES: LEGAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR NEGOTIATING GEOTECHNOLOGICAL RIVALRY

  • Stephen Minas
Keywords: legal pluralism; technology; international economic law; connectivity

Abstract

Among the dramatic global shifts of recent years, the sharpening of
geopolitical rivalries between major powers – chiefly the United States and
China – has particular significance for third countries and their legal systems.
This rivalry has a prominent ‘geotechnological’ dimension, as major powers
compete to build power through technological innovation, standardisation and
diffusion while also securitising their domestic technology sectors against
perceived threats from abroad. In this context, the ‘connectivity’ initiatives of
major powers such as China, the United States and the European Union - which
aim to build economic and other links with third countries - compete and even
conflict. Under the pressures of trade war and actual war, an emergent global
shift may be underway in the consolidation of rival geotechnological blocs.
Indications of such a shift include hard legal tools such as trade barriers and the
legislation of economic security mechanisms but also the creation of incentives
for economic and technological collaboration within informal clubs of likeminded
countries. These hard and soft tools amount to building blocks for
‘walled garden’ connectivity projects that run on incompatible operating
systems. These developments create challenges for third countries and
especially for the majority of states which rely on transnational investment and
technology transfer for the further development of their economies and living
standards. Even if not forced to ‘choose’ between competing blocs, these states
face additional political, legal and economic frictions in their dealings with
major powers. The challenge is particularly acute for the states of the Western
Balkans, which remain outside the EU despite years or decades of ‘candidate’
status but which face the necessity of alignment with EU laws and policies as
conditions of eventual EU membership. To varying degrees, the Western Balkan
states have sourced investment and technology transfer from the EU and the
United States as well as from China and other non-Western countries. They are
therefore on the frontline of conflicting connectivities and vulnerable to a
hardening of barriers between major economic powers. This paper will provide an overview of legal tools of geotechnological
rivalry and their application to the general-purpose digital technologies that are vital to economic development and the climate transition. It will take stock of
the challenges for third countries presented by the deployment of these tools in
the context of competing ‘connectivity’ projects promoted by major economic
powers, such as China’s Belt and Road initiative. It will focus on the position
of Western Balkan states as EU candidate countries that simultaneously pursue
economic relations with other major powers. The paper will reflect on what
studies of legal pluralism suggest regarding the capacity of third states to
preserve space for maintaining relations with the multiple poles of the global
economy. It will suggest potential legal strategies for third states to navigate
conflicting connectivities in order to pursue their national developmental
objectives. The paper will suggest that by negotiating rather than participating
in geotechnological rivalry, third states can both preserve their capacity to make
autonomous choices and mitigate against the coalescing of rival blocs.

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Published
2025-05-26