Security Dialogues

BALANCE OF POWER AFTER UKRAINE WAR - TRANSATLANTIC FUTURES: NATO 2030

Raimonds Rublovskis — 2024-06-28

The outcome of the conflict in Ukraine will bring fundamental political, military, economic, security and social consequences on global scale, comparable with previous historical events of Westphalian Peace, The Concert of Great Powers, Versailles system, YaltaPotsdam system and the end of the Cold War. The aim of this paper is to analyze possible scenarios of Ukraine war and possible global strategic consequences of this conflict, including development of transatlantic link of European
security and development of NATO Alliance until 2030. The outcome of the Ukrainian conflict will clearly determine future of political and institutional capability of the West, including NATO and European Union. The same issue will apply for Russian Federation and future of non-West integration platforms, including BRICS, SCO and CSTO. Perspective of multi-polar global and regional security order over unipolar – the United States led global security order.
Therefore, possibility of decreasing political, military, institutional and economic power of the United States, NATO and EU and possibility of further integration and development of BRICS, SCO, and CSTO is plausible. However, NATO Alliance has developed necessary strategies and taken necessary decisions in order to counter security challenges and threats stemming from China, Russian Federation and other global and regional actors. Madrid NATO Summit in June of 2022 has approved
new NATO Strategic Concept (NSC) which will remain relevant until 2030. NSC outlines necessary decisions, capabilities and actions in order to safeguard territory of the Alliance via strengthening the Eastern flank of the Alliance, substantially increase number of NATO High Readiness Forces and organize other activities in order to facilitate political and military development of NATO. Agenda NATO 2030 is ambitious agenda which will also determine future of trans-Atlantic link and future of the Alliance. The Agenda set out for necessary steps and actions to ensure that NATO remains ready, strong and united for a new era of increased political, military and economic competition with China and Russian Federation, and other emerging regional powers. The Agenda 2030 reveals strategic proposals for NATO development- deeper political and military consultations among the NATO Allies, strengthened deterrence and defense, improved resilience, preservation of technological edge of NATO Alliance, uphold the Rules- based international order, maintenance of NATO Open Door Policy, boost training and capacity building, combat and adapt to climate change, investing in NATO financial capability and allocation of recourses for the defense budgets of member states of the Alliance.

THE 2022 NATO MADRID SUMMIT AND THE NEW STRATEGIC CONCEPT PROVISIONS

Igor Gjoreski — 2024-06-28

The 2022 Summit of Heads of State and Government of the Alliance was held in Madrid in June 28-30. The Summit took place in the context of a conventional threat to the security of the Euro – Atlantic area as well as in a time of war on the European soil. NATO leaders discussed strategically important issues facing the Alliance, endorsed the New Concept of the Alliance, and made a series of key decisions that will have a direct impact on the future of the Alliance. Namely, at the Summit, the leaders agreed on fundamental shifts regarding the deterrence and defense doctrine, on the challenges and threats from the South related to the fight against terrorism and the 360-degree approach to deterrence and defense. They agreed to invest more in NATO with the intention to increase common funding for the Alliance’s adaptation to growing challenges such as climate change, and invited Sweden and Finland to join the Alliance. The Leaders agreed on long-term support measures for Ukraine by strengthening the Comprehensive Assistance Package and reaffirmed common
interests and shared values. The Summit has set NATO’s new strategic direction for the future, ensuring that the Alliance will continue to adapt in a changing world in order, at any moment to be ready to provide protection to over one billion people living within its borders.

THE POSITION AND ROLE OF STATE AND NON-STATE ACTORS IN THE 21st CENTURY

Oliver Bakreski — 2024-06-28

According to the classical dichotomy of the realist theory of interest representation, the subjects acting on the national and international scene are defined as state and nonstate actors in the context of their content and position. Until the turn of the 21st century, the state-centric model of interaction is characteristic, where states are the main actors dominating national and world politics, although they are not the sole ones. Examples of state actors are bureaucratically organized state institutions and governing bodies, foreign policy institutions, the army, the police, intelligence agencies, etc. The gradual rise of non-state actors, as a result of the diffusion of power and monopolistic authorities of the state, seen through the prism of recent events such as the Arab Spring, the rise of ISIS, the migrant crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, etc., illustrate that many contemporary challenges to international order and security inevitably involve, among others, non-state actors.
Examples of non-state actors include private military and security companies, the media, criminal organizations, terrorist groups, non-governmental organizations, as well as multinational corporations, lobby groups, organized social or ethnic group movements, and others. Through the application of qualitative deductive methodology, analysis of case studies and through linear interpolation of quantitative data in the context of this paper, the main questions arising from this social phenomenology are elaborated: their adjunction, regulation, with special reference to their place and role in society, in the direction of their positioning and categorization of meaning, from where the main hypothesis of this paper is drawn.

SECURITY THREATS FORMS IN THE CONTEXT OF PRIVATE PROTECTION OF PEOPLE AND PROPERTY

Nebojša Bojanić — 2024-06-28

This paper will present different forms of endangering security from the aspect of discussion in the protection of people and property. In today’s time of technological development, liberalization of the public security sector and physical border security, the setting of democratic standards has opened up large gaps to which the state sector does not have an adequate response. The answer lies in expensive technical equipment and practical training of personnel, which, however, many countries cannot afford. In addition, different interpretations of legal provisions, lack of competent personnel, although officially there are qualified personnel, in addition to that open space, allows various forms of endangering security in the interior of the state territory, and increasingly demanding challenges are posed to various security subjects. In order to protect people and property, the private security sector has been imposed, which often grows into private armies, which we have
in the examples of the former Balck Waters, or Academi, up to today’s Wagner group. The main goal of this paper is to show the forms of threats to security, and to set the limits of engagement of private agencies for the security of property and persons. The subject of the work is the classification of security threats. The problem of this work arises from the subject, and it refers to the correct detection of threats to security, which contributes to the adequate reaction of security entities. This work has universal significance because it is about general,
universal forms of security threats that can happen anywhere and anytime. Especially the countries of the Balkans are vulnerable, given the results of the post-socialist tradition. Therefore, it is not necessary to give a spatial and temporal determination of the processing of the mentioned topic. Nevertheless, a review of the topic of the importance of endangering security is from Bosnia and Herzegovina, where it is a decentralized state with decentralized security authorities that are very often an obstacle to achieving complete security or a more or less high level of security.

CONTEMPORARY MIGRATIONS FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF HUMAN SECURITY PARADIGM

Edita Hasković — 2024-06-28

The paper considers migrations from the perspective of human security paradigm, with special focus on the Post World War II period. Even though the initial activities in establishing the concept of human security have been taken in mid-40s of the last century under the umbrella of United Nations, its affirmation in scientific and political circles is reached only in the aftermath of the Cold War era, when significant steps forward were made
to extend the security agenda to non-military threats and other referent objects of security, outside the previously dominant state-centric approach. This is a concept that embodies the idea of multidimensional approach to security, which places human being and his daily exposure to different threats and disturbances that represent an existential threat in the center of scientific observations, making it indispensable in considering the contemporary migratory movements, especially multiple factors that affect them. A special focus of the paper is on determining the migration-related problems through the prism of two fundamental components of human security – freedom from fear (freedom from violence, oppression and persecution) and freedom from want (freedom from poverty, penury and misery), the insufficiency of which is accounted in certain parts of the world as a significant factor in making the decision to emigrate from country of origin.

MANAGING CONTEMPORARY SECURITY THREATS IN THE LIGHT OF THE SYSTEMS THEORY - Case Study: COVID-19

Nevena Stanković — 2024-06-28

The crisis that emerged from the COVID-19 epidemic represents a complex problem situation, characterized by an enormous number of various subjective and objective factors, as a result of multiple co-determination, mutual causality and variable interactions between them. Furthermore, there is a significantly high level of uncertainty, primarily based on the fact that it is about relatively new and unknown risk factors, and its initial changes led to dramatic consequences in every aspect of life on national, regional and global levels, in an extremely short time. The effect of the time “compression” and the ultimate destructive potential of the epidemic have been added to already limited possibilities in the aspect of planning and decision-making, in order to manage the crisis situation as adequately as possible. Starting with an interdisciplinary approach to resolving complex problems, by exceeding the “artificial” dichotomy between natural and social sciences, the system approach emerges as the most adequate approach for managing existing crises. Finally, the co-authors
reviewed different ways of managing crisis situation, or different strategies for exceeding crises (specifically the pragmatist approach), the potential of the short-term prognoses and predictions (with an accent on the famous scenario-planning method), including the implications of the strategic “surprises” (black swans, black elephants, or dragon kings).

SECURITY IMPLICATIONS FROM RIGHT-WING EXTREMISM AND TERRORISM IN EUROPEAN UNION

Tanja Miloshevska — 2024-06-28

This paper aim is an analyze how right-wing terrorism seeks to change the entire political, social and economic system to a right-wing extremist model. One cause for concern is the increasingly young age of suspects linked to violent online communities of varying degrees of organization. In this paper we draw attention that video
games and video game communication applications were increasingly used in 2020 for spreading rightwing terrorist and extremist propaganda, in particular among young people. In 2020, transnational sources of inspiration, such as the Siege culture, popularized in the virtual world, were observed to gain more traction especially with extremists that were younger in age than previously typical on the extreme right at national level. COVID-19 was observed to accelerate the trend of spreading right-wing extremist propaganda online, rather than offline. Right-wing extremists exploited COVID-19 to support their narratives of accelerationism and conspiracy theories featuring anti-Semitic, anti-immigration and anti-Islamic rhetoric. Also, they seek to extend their influence to other circles or sectors of activity (e.g., sports hooligans). In general, the right-wing extremist scene can be described as very heterogeneous, with differing manifestations in terms of organization, political objectives and the preferred means of achieving these. The right-wing extremist spectrum is a mixture of prejudices, contemptuous and totalitarian ideologies that, each in their own way, had security implications.

RETHINKING SECURITY POLICY OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA AND IMPROVING THE RESPONSE TO CHALLENGES AND THREATS

Zlatan Bajramović — 2024-06-28

The General framework agreement for peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina initialled in Dayton, USA, and signed in Paris, France, in 1995 stopped the war and brought peace. Bosnia and Herzegovina didn’t have a common army or police in that moment. First law enforcement agency on state level was State Bordes Service established in 2000 and after this several more has been established. Defense reform is completed in 2005 with the establishment of Armed Forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Security policy of Bosnia and Herzegovina have been adopted by the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina on February 8th 2006. Since then no change has been made to this policy. Security sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina but also in other countries in the region of South Eastern Europe has been changed. Security threats and challenges significantly changed the perspective on security sector, organizational structure and response in many countries. Bosnia and Herzegovina don’t have National Security Strategy and Security policy is one the main documents for foreign policy, inner policy, defence policy, social policy, financial policy, democracy and human rights and protection of the environment.
There is a clear need for redefinition of this document and approach to security challenges and threats in Bosnia and Herzegovina and harmonization with the documents of European union and neighboring countries in South eastern Europe.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN KOSOVO AND SERBIA AFTER UKRAINE WAR

Cansu Yazar — 2024-06-28

The relationship between Kosovo and Serbia has been characterized by hypertension for many years. This disagreement has led to ongoing political and diplomatic disputes between two sides. In a 20th century, contained by Yugoslavia but declared independence in 2008 because of conflicts with Serbians. Serbia never consents the decision and sees the Kosovo as an integral part of Serbia. Furthermore, Kosovo accepted as heart of Orthodox Church therefore the place is very significant according to Serbian’s national identity. In the background, the conflict took place and committed a war crime because of the independence of Kosovo unacceptable to Serbia. In addition that, ethnic tensions between the majority Albanian population in Kosovo and the minority Serb population have also contributed to the ongoing tensions. In the past, tensions have increased to violent conflicts. NATO’s intervention has virtually not stopped the violence and the UN Interim Administration Mission (UNMIK) established in Kosovo. After years, the observation does not change in Serbia, but in comparison the area has stabilized. Kosovo’s independence is recognized by more than 100 countries, including the United States and most of European nations. But Serbia, Russia, China and other several countries have never recognized. Nevertheless, Kosovo’s status remains an open question in international politics. However, related topics between two country seems as to normalize in recent years but tension rises again after Russia and Ukraine war started because most people liken Kosovo and Ukraine in fact their leaders. There was the same violence on the borders of Ukraine as the Serb soldiers in Yugoslavia before. Kosovo’s concerns will be understandable once the present situation in Ukraine has been analysed. The war sparked the tension in the Balkan region that already exists. Movement of Russia concerns the worry in Kosovo because Putin frankly said that; Ukraine belongs to Russia and never think separate. Keep in view the similar attitude of Serbia and Russia, Kosovo has begun to anticipate for any move.

TÜRKİYE-LIBYA RELATIONS: TÜRKİYE’s EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN POLICY

Ahmet Burak — 2024-06-28

Without a doubt, Türkiye is one of the most important Mediterranean powers and has made a significant contribution to the creation of Mediterranean culture for many centuries. And since the Justice and Development Party (tur. Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) came to power in 2002, Türkiye has made significant progress in strengthening the status of a regional power. When the intervention of the NATO military coalition in Libya started (March 19, 2011), which led to the fall of the government of Muammar Gaddafi. Thereby, Libya has become the scene of a civil war and a clash of geopolitical interests. It should be noted that Libya is an Ottoman heritage. This country is a familiar territory for Türkiye: for over 350 years, Libya was part of the Ottoman Empire. In connection with this today Ankara is actively involved in the conflict in Libya and increasing its presence in the Eastern Mediterranean. The article is devoted to Türkiye’s foreign policy at the present stage. Author in this study analysis that relations between Türkiye and Libya also Türkiye’s activities in the region within the sphere of its geopolitical interests in the Eastern Mediterranean are carried out at the political, economic, cultural and military.

VULNERABILITY AND HUMAN RIGHTS: TACKLING SEXUAL AND GENDER-BASED VIOLENCE AGAINST MIGRANTS AND ENHANCING SUPPORT TO VICTIMS

Ilarija Bašić — 2024-06-28

This paper seeks to improve understanding of the risks and types of sexual and gender-based violence faced by migrants, as well as ways of providing protection and assistance within the mixed migration context in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention states that over half of women and almost 1 in 3 men worldwide have experienced sexual violence involving physical contact during their lifetimes. Even though the prevalence of sexual violence is high, its exact scope is unknown due to its vast underreporting. Sexual violence against people on the move is widespread. Regardless of age and gender, this population is highly vulnerable to becoming victims of sexual and gender-based violence during their journey toward the desired destination. How the proper activities aimed to prevent and treat the consequences of sexual and gender-based violence in the humanitarian context are set up in Bosnia and Herzegovina and what kind of services are provided to victims will be discussed within the paper. How important the role of humanitarian
workers is, their understanding of sexual and gender-based violence, and their readiness to provide adequate care, recognize the types of sexual violence, and use all the benefits of the existing referral pathway properly will also be broadly explored.

SMUGGLING OF MIGRANTS ON THE BALKAN ROUTE WITH AN AMPHASIS ON BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

Admir Katica — 2024-06-28

Since 2015 the migrant crisis has affected on a global level regions and started off the worst refugee crisis since the establishment of European Union. While some countries were set to help and provide support to migrants and refugees, others turned to setting up fences, in order to stop illegal entries to their countries. Different approaches were in place depending on the state policy of the country, which majorly focused on strenghtening border control. Along with strictier border controls, the market of smuggling migrants arise and even COVID19 did not impacted the movement of migrants in a broader extent. The smuggling of migrants according to Global Initiative market assesment facilitated milllions of euros, only in 2020, while it differed a set of typology of smugglers. Smugglers use current migration, as well as political situation triggered with corruption, to make their ‘bussines’ flourish. This paper provides insights in how migration and organized crime are linked, in the sense of smuggling of migrants, and presents the market of smuggling in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

GENDER PARTICIPATION – GENDER PROTECTION PENDULUM

Nermina Jerković — 2024-06-28

International law safeguards our universal commons and international peace and security while protecting those the most vulnerable to human rights abuses, such as participants in existing migration towards the European Union. This article aims to shed light on the link between two international law fields: gender equality and the protection of victims of human trafficking among migrants who diverted their journey through the Western Balkan Route embracing Bosnia and Herzegovina since 2018. The research’s relevance is found in
statistics from 2018 to 2022 and recent studies on the inadequate protection of migrants from human traffickers and smugglers along the Western Balkan Route. Thus, the article argues that the gender inequality in the law enforcement agencies in Bosnia and Herzegovina hinders proper identification and protection of VHT in joint migrations of men, women and children, enabling their further trafficking towards the European Union.
The methodological framework includes the desk analysis of the gender mainstreaming legal framework and goes over international and national regulations on combating human trafficking. Qualitative research on the main impediments to the identification of the victims of human trafficking includes responses from NGO practitioners mandated to protect migrants in the temporary reception centres in Bosnia and Herzegovina, highlighting the presence of the VHT among migrants. Research results present the flagship components of migrants’ negligence in reporting human trafficking; one of the principal reasons is their non-confidence in law enforcement agencies, which are seriously discriminated against women regarding participation and management position holding. The article demonstrates the intersectionality of international law focus areas
in the gender participation-gender protection pendulum and urges for increased participation of women in the security sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina and enhanced protection of the victims of human trafficking through international law implementation.

THE SUBJECTIVE FACTORS IMPACT ON CONFLICT DYNAMICS

Aleksandar Pavleski — 2024-06-28

Regardless of the level at which they occur, ie. from the lowest individual or local, up to the highest or global one, conflicts usually attract the most attention, when aggression and violence become a part of the conflict behavior. At the same time, in such situations the focus of all involved actors (direct and indirect) in the conflict is usually placed on the objective causes and aspects that have initiated the violence occurrence or escalation. It practically means that the importance of subjective aspects and factors for such conflict situations, is often put on the margins in conflict management approaches. Starting from the thesis that such aspects, above all: perceptions, stereotypes and the interpretation of past experience, also have a significant impact on the conflict constellation and structure, the paper analyzes their mutual relationship more specifically. Actually, behind the objective and visible values and assumptions about a concrete conflict, there are almost always in the background, other, deeper values and assumptions (perceptions, stereotypes, prejudices) that further complicate its nature and structure. Hence, the paper analyzes the essential characteristics of these
aspects, especially through the prism of their impact on the conflict dynamics expansion and complication. The purpose of such an analysis is to advance the awareness about the meaning and impact of subjective aspects on the conflict, as well as the awareness about the need for apply a broader and multidisciplinary approaches in dealing with conflicts.

ANALYSIS OF SPECIFIC ANTHROPOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND COMPARISON BETWEEN AND WITHIN CERTAIN POSITIONS IN A VIP CLOSE PROTECTION TEAM

Zlatko Moratić — 2024-06-28

The aim of this paper is to present the necessary anthropological features essential for the performance of general and specific jobs, as well as a comparison within and between certain positions in the team for the close protection of VIPs. The aim of the research is the analysis of specific anthropological characteristics, within certain positions and comparisons between certain positions. For the purposes of this work, an expert analysis was conducted in which twenty-four experts from the field of close protection from the region and Europe
have participated, who in their career were members of VIP security services for at least 5 years and worked in all positions in the close protection team. The necessary anthropological characteristics were assessed by an expert analysis and a comparison was made between and within the team for close protection of VIPs working at a medium threat level in accordance with the model most often used in the region and Europe. The mentioned model includes a minimum of two vehicles during the security transport of VIPs by motor vehicles
and an average number of agents. The results of this research, after analyzing of specific anthropological characteristics, indicate that there are statistically significant differences in the value of certain factors within certain positions in the team, as well as statistically significant differences in the value of certain factors between certain positions in the team. The results of this research are of crucial importance for the continued improvement of the training and formation of teams that work at an intermediate level of threat, considering the individualities and characteristics of the members of the mentioned team.

EXPLORING THE IMPACT OF MIGRATION, ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON NORTH MACEDONIA: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW

Aleksandar Petrovski — 2024-06-28

The question of how migration, environment and climate change interact has been a topic of increasing interest in North Macedonia. Estimates of the numbers of people who may be displaced by climate change-related phenomena by 2050 range from 50 million to 1 billion people, with the most cited number, 200 million, being based on projections by Norman Myers in 1995 and 2000 [1]. However, Myers himself has admitted to uncertainty in his estimate and that necessary extrapolations were made due to a lack of available data [1]. Additionally, the high-end estimate, of 1 billion people displaced by 2050, comes from a Christian Aid report [1]. It is acknowledged that climate change will not alone cause conflict, but it is also accepted that it has the potential to exacerbate or catalyze conflict in conjunction with other factors [1]. Examining the impact of migration, environment, and climate change on North Macedonia: a systematic review, the pathway is non-linear, and, in some cases, climate-induced conflict may in turn cause migration [1]. Current research
indicates that climate migration will not necessarily increase the risk of conflict, however, linking climate migration to conflict is difficult since the relative importance of climate migration, among the many other drivers, must be determined [1]. All factors involved in the system, which are linking climate, migration and conflict are location dependent, and the relationship between climate change, migration and conflict depends on social, demographic, economic and political drivers [1]. Future research should focus on the local
interplay of multiple drivers that influence whether the climate will increase the risk of conflict, and Neo Malthusian theory suggesting that as populations continue to increase, competition for resources will also increase, and could lead to conflict as the inequalities increase between those in control of resources and those who do not have access [1]. Even though the climate-migration-conflict pathway is viewed as linear and even deterministic in the media, scholars are increasingly cautious when discussing the pathway, and the potential impacts of climate variability and change on migration and conflict will remain an important area of research and policy planning.

THE EVOLUTION OF TERRORISM IN THE INTERNET SPACE AS A SECURITY CHALLENGE

Selmin Nesimoski — 2024-06-28

Although a universally accepted definition of terrorism does not yet exist, almost all researchers of this phenomenon agree that it has existed since ancient times, evolves and very skillfully adapts to the new digital age. Terrorist organizations began to feel the benefits of the Internet as soon as it appeared, especially in fast communication, which, although at first it seemed not so secure, later with the help of the encrypted platforms developed by terrorist organizations, communication not only which has become much safer, but it has given even more courage to sympathizers to join the terrorist cause and make their contribution, whether they be the so-called “worker bees” (mujaheddin/mujaheddin - the diligent ones), or join the battlefields. This paper aims to highlight how terrorists use the benefits of the developed technology especially the internet. One of the things that emerges as a challenge is precisely the role that women play in recruitment and radicalization for terrorist organizations. Namely, a woman seems to go beyond the conservative treatment in the regions where terrorism is present. Thus, terrorism begins to use all possible resources available to it. Children also become a
potential target for recruitment mostly in the internet space, but also in the gaming world. Like the uneven distribution of goods, the power struggle of the great powers, and at the end of the day, systemic inequality contributes to terrorism still being treated as one of the biggest security threats in the global world.