FORECASTING IN CONFLICT SITUATIONS

Апстракт

Conflicts as social relations are phenomena that are difficult to avoid and arise as a result of different perceptions and disagreements in relations for the purpose of achieving certain goals, hence the question arises whether they will further manifest as political (non-violent) or in a violent way.  Forecasting can be especially  useful in important conflicts, as it contributes to the perceptions of the potential development of events in the future, and thus influences the preparation of an adequate response for action, since surprise in conflict situations can lead to an unexpected and undesirable outcome. Hence, the primary hypothesis of this paper is that forecasting has serious positive implications in the management process in conflict situations, and as a result of forecasting, potential dangers can be promptly detected and practically analyzed, thus achieving in the certain way a higher level of readiness. The purpose of this research is to obtain in-depth knowledge about the role of forecasting and the benefits it can provide in the process of managing conflict situations through analysis. Considering the complexity and multidimensionality of this research, the methodology applied in this paper includes a content analysis method, a description method, a data analysis and interpretation method, an induction and deduction method, and a comparative analysis method.

References

•     Armstrong, J., 2001. Principles of forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. Pennsylvania: University of Pennsylvania, The Wharton.
•     Bakreski, O., Cvetkovski, S. & Bardjieva Miovska, L., 2022. Forecasting as a Function of Security Management. In: Proceedings of the Economics & Finance Conferences. [online] 16th Economics & Finance Conference. IISES (International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences), pp.41–54. Available at: http://hdl.handle. net/20.500.12188/23346 [Accessed 16 Aug. 2024].
•     Bartos, O. & Wehr, P., 2002. Using Conflict Theory. New York: Cambridge University Press.

•     Council of Europe, 2012. T-Kit, Volume 12: Youth Transforming Conflict. s.l.: Council of Europe.
•     Cryer, J. & Chan, K.-S., 2011. Time series analysis with applications in R. Second Edition ed. New York, London: Springer.
•     Diebold, F. X., 2017. Forecasting in Economics, Business, Finance and Beyond. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania.
•     Ghysels, E. & Marcellino, M., 2018. Applied Economic Forecasting using Time Series Methods. New York: Oxford University Press.
•     Hanke, E. & Wichern, W., 2014. Business Forecasting. Ninth Edition ed. s.l.: Pearson Education Limited .
•     Henderson, I. & de Coning, C., 2008. Conflict Management for Peacekeepers and Peacebuilders. 1st Edition ed. s.l.: African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD).
•     Hill, C. & McShane, S., 2008. Principles of management. New York: McGraw-Hill/ Irwin.
•     Hoshmand, A., 2010. Business Forecasting: A Practical Approach. Second Edition ed. New York: Routledge.
•     Indartono, S., 2014. Conflict Management. Yogyakarta: Aksara Media Pratama.
•     Jeong, H.-W., 2009. Conflict Management and Resolution: An Introduction. 1st Edition ed. London: Routledge.
•     Kešetović, Ž., Korajlić, N. & Tot, I., 2013. Krizni menadžment. 2. izmijenjeno i dopunjeno izd. ed. Sarajevo: Fakultet za kriminalistiku, kriminologiju i sigurnosne studije, Univerziteta u Sarajevu; Veleučilište Velika Gorica.
•     Kozarević, S., 2009. Konflikt i teorija igara. Tuzla: OFF-SET - Tuzla.
•     Lisica, D. & Bajramović, Z., 2021. Planiranje u sektoru sigurnosti. Sarajevo: Fakultet političkih nauka Univerziteta u Sarajevu.

•     Petropoulos, F., 2022. Forecasting: theory and practice. International Journal of Forecasting, 38(3), pp. 705-871.
•     Robbins, P. & Coulter, M., 2010. Management. 11th ed., ed. New Jersey: Pearson Prentice - Hall.
•     Shostack, A., 2014. Threat Modeling: Designing for Security. Indianapolis: John Wiley & Sons, Inc,.
•     Stanković, J. & Đoković, F., 2019. Strategijski menadžment. Beograd: Univerzitet Singidunum.
•     Tourki, M., Backović, M. & Cvjetićanin, D., 1999. Matematički modeli i metodi u ekonomiji. 4. izmenjeno i dopunjeno izd. ed. Beograd: Ekonomski fakultet.
•     UcedaVelez, T. & Morana, M., 2015. Risk Centric Threat Modeling : process for attack simulation and threat analysis. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons .
•     Vojnović, B., 2014. Menadžment. Beograd: Institut za ekonomiku poljoprivrede.
•     Vujošević, M., 1997. Operativni menadžment: kvantitativne metode. Beograd: DOPIS.

•     Андонов, О., 2022. Основи на процена на ризици и закани. Скопје: Воена академија „Генерал Михаило Апостолски“.
•     Арнаудовски, Љ., 2007. Криминологија. Скопје: 2-ри Август С- Штип.
•     Бакрески, О., 2016. Основи на безбедносниот менаџмент. Скопје: Филозофски факултет.
•     Квигин, Т., 2009. Да се види невидливото: разузнавање за националната безбедност во несигурно време. Скопје: Магор.
•     Кековиќ, З., Бакрески, О., Стефановски, С. & Павловиќ, С., 2016. Планирање и процена на ризик: во функција на заштита на лица, имот и работење. Скопје: Комора на Република Македонија за приватно обезбедување.
•     Малиш – Саздовска, М., 2021. Прирачник за безбедносен менаџмент. Скопје: Факултет за безбедност – Скопје.
•     Новковић, Н., 2018. Планирање и пројектовање. Нови Сад: Универзитет у Новом Саду - Пољопривредни факултет.
•     Ристески, С., Тевдовски, Д. & Трпкова, М., 2012. Вовед во анализата на временските серии. Скопје: Економски факултет – Скопје.
•     Стаменковски, А., 1996. Планирање на одбраната. Скопје: Ѓурѓа.